Research
Policy analysis and political decision-making
I study the effects of policy interventions and how political actors choose between them. To examine these questions together, I combine economic models with models of belief formation, influence, and bargaining.
Policy analysis under uncertainty
I develop Bayesian approaches to estimating policy impacts from statistical data and expert information. These approaches also allow me to average across alternative economic models when the choice of model is uncertain.
I use metamodels to make large simulation models more tractable, both for dynamic calibration and for incorporating model uncertainty into policy assessment.
Agriculture, climate & food systems
I use agricultural and economy-wide models to study how policies and technologies affect production, welfare, and environmental outcomes. Current work includes analysis of policy and investment priorities under the Kampala CAADP Declaration, European Farm to Fork policy packages, trade spillovers in international climate policy, and the economic implications of agricultural digital twins.
In projects with FAO and other research and policy partners, I have developed computational frameworks for food-system transformation and agricultural policy analysis in Africa and Asia.
Networks, beliefs & institutions
Political actors may favour a different policy from the one a model suggests. I study how their beliefs and interests shape policy preferences. I also examine how information and political support travel through networks, and how actors reach collective decisions through bargaining.
This includes research on participatory agricultural policy processes and the institutions that support evidence-based policymaking under CAADP.